Sayyid Mostafa Khoshcheshm, senior political analyst.
The Al-Aqsa Storm Operation, which took place on 7th of October has been a unique one. Both in terms of its design and execution and in terms of the achievements it has brought for the Palestinian Resistance fronts. What follows tries to shed light on some of the aspects and dimensions of this victorious operation.
The truth is that the October 7 operation carried out by the Islamic Resistance front in Gaza has strategic implications and consequences, while the retaliatory Israeli operation has only tactical implications, with short-term, non-strategic effects, naturally. The remarks made by the Leader of the Islamic Revolution about the "irreparability of the blow" inflicted on the Zionist regime is precisely in line with this. The strategic implications of the operation of the Islamic resistance in Gaza will become clear to everyone and will manifest itself after the conclusion of the operation and the war.
Basically, the Zionist regime's military doctrine is based on four pillars:
1. Deterrence
2. Warning
3. Decision-making
4. Defense against threats
In Operation Al-Aqsa Storm, all four pillars of Israel’s doctrine were effectively destroyed by the Islamic resistance in Gaza. This would become more important if we know that prior to this, Israel’s security, intelligence, and military apparatus assessed that the resistance in Gaza was the weakest link of the Axis of Resistance in the region.
The destruction of the four elements of Israel’s defensive doctrine is precisely the reason behind the United States’ political and pivotal entry into the arena. This translates into the great impact of Operation Al-Aqsa Storm has had.
The next strategic implication for the Zionist regime will be a severe leadership rift. Currently, with US intervention, the Netanyahu team and right-wing Israeli extremists have come together with opposition leaders and movements. However, in the aftermath of the war, the disputes will undoubtedly intensify and expand, and the current Israeli cabinet will collapse, similar to what we witnessed after Israel’s defeat in the 33-Day War, with the Winograd Commission, the ultimate imprisonment of Olmert as prime minister, and the widespread removal of senior Israeli military commanders.
When I said the consequences of Israel’s operation (bloody, vicious bombardment of Gaza) will be tactical and short-term, it means that immediately after this operation, the settlers, who no longer feel secure due to the recent events, the loss of the Israeli army and government’s deterrence, and the ineffectiveness of their promises, will begin mass migration, from the border settlements of Gaza and Lebanon to other areas. This reverse migration, so to speak, will intensify. We’ve witnessed its evidence since the very beginning of Operation Al-Aqsa Storm in the form of widespread evacuation of many Zionist settlements from Israeli airports including Ben Gurion Airport to others.
The recent developments will undoubtedly have an impact on US elections as well. Israel is pursuing two strategies: First, the destruction of Hamas, and second, the razing of Gaza to the ground and relocating its residents to the Sinai Peninsula of Egypt.
Neither of these two strategies is feasible under any circumstances. First, in case of further escalation, including a ground invasion by Israeli forces, various Palestinian resistance groups and eventually Lebanon’s Hezbollah will enter the war with full strength, and along with Hamas’s urban warfare, Gaza will turn into a quagmire for this regime. However, even regardless of this, it should be noted with regard to attempts to destroy Hamas that the resistance group is not a concrete structure or facility that can be destroyed through bombardments and attacks, but rather, it is a movement based on the ideology of resistance and is not easily destructible. Indeed, we have already seen a similar case in Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
Regarding the issue of forced displacement of the people of Gaza, it should be noted that the majority of the population are not willing to leave their homeland. They express that they do not want to repeat the mistakes of their forefathers on the Day of Nakba by handing over their land to the Zionist regime. The opposition of regional countries and the people of Gaza as well as neighboring countries’ resistance to migration will lead to the abject failure of Israel’s strategy of evacuating Gaza’s residents and their forced displacement.
Therefore, Israel has suffered significant, long-term strategic losses so far, the consequences of which will continue for years to come, while apart from the brutality and mass killings that have only awakened the people of the region and the world to support Palestine, it has gained nothing else.
(The views expressed in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of Khamenei.ir.)
