Foad Izadi, Associate Professor of American Studies, Tehran university
Escalation of human costs for the US in Case of direct military involvement
According to American sources themselves, the US has over 50,000 troops stationed across ten bases in the region, many of which are located very close to Iran’s borders. Some are situated along the Persian Gulf, while others are slightly farther away — yet still significantly closer than the Zionist regime. Given this proximity, Iran’s various ballistic missiles can easily reach these bases, and the short distance makes intercepting these missiles extremely difficult. An Iranian missile can strike these bases within just 3 to 5 minutes.
Even in the occupied territories (Israel), where a multi-layered missile defense system has been developed over years, a significant number of Iranian missiles would still penetrate. How, then, could US bases — which lack such defensive systems — possibly withstand such attacks?
As a result, 50,000 American soldiers are within range of Iran’s highly advanced ballistic missiles. This number — 50,000 — matches the total casualties the US suffered over 12 years in the Vietnam War. In this region, however, thousands of American troops could be killed within just a few days. This would be an unbearable cost for the US. One of the key reasons Washington has avoided direct military engagement so far is precisely this fear of massive troop losses in the region.
By entering this war directly, the US would face two major problems:
- Iran would have the opportunity to target these stationed troops.
- Domestically, the US Congress holds the constitutional authority to declare war. Even now, before any major escalation, there is significant congressional opposition to direct US involvement.
The statement by Imam Khamenei in his second televised address to the Iranian people, in which he said, "Of course, the Americans who are familiar with the policies of this region know that the US entering in this matter [war] is 100% to its own detriment. The damage it will suffer will be far greater than any harm that Iran may encounter. The harm the US will suffer will definitely be irreparable if they enter this conflict militarily," is an expert assessment, and the Americans themselves are well aware of this reality.
This is why Trump, despite his bluster, has repeatedly stated that the US is not officially involved — though he occasionally slips up. For example, in a June 17 tweet, he wrote, "The skies of Iran are completely under our control." The use of the word "our" is telling, as it reveals that the attack on Iran is a joint US-Israeli project, even as other White House officials have denied this in official statements.
Economic consequences of escalating tensions and US involvement
If this imposed war on Iran escalates, tensions will rise, and there will be significant economic repercussions. Oil prices have already surged dramatically. A direct US-Iran conflict would further destabilize the global economy, harming America itself. The US has struggled with inflation over the past three years, and one of Trump’s key economic promises was to reduce it. A regional war — and the resulting spike in oil prices — would exacerbate inflation severely.
Political and legal consequences of US entry into war
In March, the head of US intelligence agencies testified before the Senate Intelligence Committee, presenting the annual report of the US intelligence community. The report made three key points about Iran’s nuclear program:
- Iran does not possess a nuclear bomb.
- Iran has no program to produce a nuclear bomb.
- Iranian officials have not decided to build a nuclear bomb.
This was the assessment of US intelligence agencies just three months ago. Similarly, the Director-General of the IAEA stated in a CNN interview that there is no evidence Iran intends to produce a nuclear bomb. Therefore, there is no legal justification for attacking a country that — according to both the IAEA and US intelligence agencies — has no intention of building nuclear weapons.
Public opinion and US entry into this war
Global public opinion, already outraged by the 19 months of genocide in Gaza, sees that the Zionists are trying to instigate a new large-scale war in Iran. They understand that an Israeli attack on Iran would be impossible without US support — particularly since the fighter jets conducting operations against Iran require mid-air refueling, which is provided by US tanker aircraft. It has recently been announced that additional US refueling planes are being deployed to the region.
The global pro-Palestine movement, deeply angered by the genocide, recognizes that Iran’s "crime" is its support for the Palestinian cause — and they will stand with Iran. They understand that the Iranian people, like the people of Gaza, are victims of Zionist war criminals who have slaughtered over 60,000 in Gaza and now seek to repeat those atrocities in Iran.
Thus, direct US entry into this war would impose heavy costs — economically, politically, legally, and in terms of global public opinion. Even Trump and other US officials are aware of this, which is why they have not officially declared involvement.
True goal of Zionist regime and the US in launching this war
Recent interviews with Netanyahu and other Israeli officials reveal that the real objective of this war is the overthrow of the Islamic Republic and the disintegration of Iran. Initially, the focus was on Iran’s nuclear program, but it was always clear that the nuclear issue was never the real concern. The problem, for them, is Iran itself — and their desire to break it apart.
The reason is simple: As long as a major country like Iran — with its population, human capital, and natural resources — exists, it will remain a rival to Israel and the US It does not matter what government rules Iran. While the Islamic Republic is particularly unfavorable to them, they know that any government in Iran would inevitably adopt a nationalist stance and pursue independence.
This is why they seek Iran’s disintegration. They know that over the past four decades, the Islamic Republic has been the force preserving Iran’s territorial integrity. Their goal is to topple the Islamic Republic, leading either to a fractured, feudal-style rule or a weak central government in Tehran that would facilitate the country’s breakup.
Many in Iran have recognized this. As reflected in the Leader’s message, Iranian officials were engaged in negotiations, with no indication that Iran intended to take any drastic action. The Foreign Minister was set to continue talks in Oman on Sunday, entering a sixth round of negotiations with Steve Wittkopf—but this war began just two days prior. Even Trump tweeted: "The Israelis killed those who were negotiating with us." No civilized government kills those it is negotiating with — except the US and Israel.
It must be said that what Netanyahu predicted in his interviews did happen: The Iranian people took to the streets. But instead of division, they united —against Netanyahu. He inadvertently strengthened Iran’s national unity to a degree unseen since Saddam’s imposed war on Iran. Saddam’s attack had been a surprise, and this Zionist regime’s aggression carried the same element of shock. Netanyahu is today’s Saddam, and his attack has had the same effect on Iranian society and global public opinion as Saddam’s did —except Netanyahu’s global image, due to 19 months of genocide, is far worse.
Thus, the Leader’s remarks about the Iranian people’s response were entirely accurate — and mark the failure of the Zionist regime’s plot in this regard.
The potential direct involvement of the U.S. in a war with Iran carries catastrophic consequences—from massive military losses and economic turmoil to political and legal backlash. With 50,000 American troops vulnerable to Iran’s advanced missiles, the human cost could surpass the Vietnam War in days. Meanwhile, rising oil prices and inflation would further strain an already fragile U.S. economy. Legally, no justification exists for attacking Iran, as even U.S. intelligence denies any nuclear weapons intent. Behind this conflict lies Israel’s true aim: to dismantle Iran, knowing its strength challenges their dominance. Yet, instead of dividing Iran, the aggression has only unified its people against this blatant aggression.
(The views expressed in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of Khamenei.ir.)
