Question: Let’s start this discussion with the subject of America’s decline. What are the reasons behind this?
M. Khoshcheshm: There are many reasons for the decline of American power. The first is the manner in which they have faced domestic and international challenges and crises. For example, take a look at how they’ve dealt with the coronavirus in the US. The number of fatalities is still high and they still have problems in the case of COVID-19. Furthermore, an ever-increasing political polarization is also seen in the US.
Bipolarity exists in all countries, but when it becomes intense and frequent with regard to very sensitive issues and you see bipolarities everywhere, it signals an alarm, especially in the US. In America, there was a bipolarity like the Civil War a few hundred years ago. Even though no one talks about this bipolarity anymore, the effects of it still remain. It recently became so obvious that a couple of years ago, the Pentagon told the military installations in the southern parts of America that they are not allowed to use the Confederate flag that the Southern States used in the Civil War against the Northern States. According to the Pentagon’s order, no military person has the right to carry the Southern flag anywhere, even in their own personal vehicle. This is a wake-up call for those living in the states that seek to exacerbate this bipolarity.
Question: What are the characteristics of political bipolarity in the US that can reduce the power of America and be this dangerous for them?
M. Khoshcheshm: One of the features that can make bipolarities dangerous, especially in the US is the amount of violence that occurs on both sides of this bipolarity, and this is a very important thing. You saw a political example of this when Trump’s supporters attacked Congress. This crisis is not limited to Trump or Republican-Democratic bipolarity. Today, some of the American people have a dichotomy with regard to the whole government. In other words, they see themselves neither as part of the Democrats nor the Republicans. Some of these people voted for Trump in the first round of his presidency. But even this group is fed up. The latest polls show that the majority don’t want Trump or Biden to go to the next round.
Apart from the political bipolarity that is becoming increasingly violent in the US, the bipolarity related to racial discrimination and Blacks-Whites issues has also intensified. You saw the number of demonstrations that took place in support of the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement and how they became violent.
Question: Has the US economic situation in recent years also had an effect on the socio-political bipolarities of this society?
M. Khoshcheshm: Yes. Apart from the issue of racial discrimination in the US, there is also a bipolarity in the field of wealth gap, which is intensifying every day. In other words, the Gini coefficient, or the index of class distance between different classes has also grown, which shows the increase in discrimination and inequality in the distribution of wealth. Now, in addition to people of color and immigrants who are in the lower economic classes, there are many white people who are faced with the same situation.
Furthermore, many other bipolarities have been formed in the US about issues such as the permission to carry weapons. Thus, the multiple bipolarities that exist in different fields have divided and disintegrated American society. The violence that occurs in these bipolarities is the next factor that can be seen in most of these gaps. As a result, such bipolarities cause division and fragmentation in society, leading it toward weakness.
Question: These things were internal signs of America's decline. What are the factors outside the US that confirm the proposition of the decline of America's power and position?
M. Khoshcheshm: Externally, we see that the US can no longer control global challenges. You can see this clearly in the Ukraine war. This decline can be seen in America’s susceptibility to infiltrations. In other words, the US has been weakened in such a way that even though it used to go to dozens of different countries, staging coups there, changing presidents and so on, all of a sudden in 2016, it accuses Russia of appointing a president for America.
The America that carried out operations wherever it wanted is now looking for the one who revealed the top-secret documents that were leaked from the Pentagon regarding Iran, China, South Korea, and the war in Ukraine. The CIA and the Pentagon’s emails are being hacked. These aren’t issues that can easily be overlooked.
Question: Externally, where has the situation of the US gone to in the all-round political and economic competition it has had with China? How has the United States' dominance over the regulation of countries' positions changed compared to the way it was in the past?
M. Khoshcheshm: Despite all the tensions that began from the period of Trump's administration, Biden is following a similar policy with regards to China. He has been unable to damage China's economic growth. China, in addition to the continuation of economic growth, has been able to attract some of America's traditional allies or partners, such as Saudi Arabia.
If the US and essentially the Western civilization had not suffered this decline, you would never have seen a partner like Saudi Arabia agree to use the yuan instead of dollar in its oil exports to China. If the US hadn’t been weakened, Saudi Arabia would not have attempted to improve its relations with Iran. Right now, in the recent visit of American officials to Saudi Arabia, it is evident that they are very upset about this issue.
Question: What is the reason for America's anger over the formation of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia?
M. Khoshcheshm: The first thing that upsets the Americans in the field of Iran-Saudi relations is that one of the United States’ main partners and friends is making peace and establishing relations with one of America's main enemies. The second issue for the US is why it isn’t playing a role in this matter and why it is even being removed from the regional equations. The third thing that concerns the US is why China, which is its main competitor, is in the middle of this? That is why Mark Dubowitz, the chief executive of FDD, the anti-Iranian lobby, says that "Renewed Iran-Saudi ties as a result of Chinese mediation is a lose, lose, lose for American interests." In other words, it is a threefold loss for them. Well, this is very important.
What this shows is that the US has lost its power in the region. The Americans wanted to shift the deployment of forces in the region from the Middle East or West Asia to East Asia in order to control China. But they didn't want to leave this region either. They wanted to reduce their forces in this area, but they had an alternative plan — following the scorched-earth policy for the West Asia, which failed, and the proxy wars they waged.
The US was present in the first period, in the first decade of this century. It followed the policy of attack and military presence in order to disrupt governments and nations. In the second period and decade, it continued this policy with proxy wars.
Now, in the third period, it wanted the Zionist regime and the Arab countries to form a united front under the Abraham Accords in order to confront Iran, not in a military way, but security-wise, financially, and through the use of hybrid warfare. It in fact sought to create an intelligence, operational, and terrorist encirclement line around Iran before dragging it inside the country. It also sought to become active in other areas such as propaganda, sanctions, etc. so that Iran would become weakened within its own borders. And on the borders, it wanted Iran to get caught up with all kinds of dangers, terrorist threats, and espionage.
Question: Why won’t these countries wait for America's opinion and for it to give them permission for their decisions and actions anymore?
M. Khoshcheshm: After the countries witnessed the United States’ successive failures and how it quickly withdrew from Afghanistan and abandoned its ally, leaving the country to its rival, the lessons became clear for them. They have all learned from this and are moving toward establishing relations with Iran. Why? One reason is that they have seen that the Americans have lost their power and the US can no longer support them.
The second reason, which may be more important or just as important, is that the countries in the region are also seeing the change in the world order. Take a look at their position and stances when it comes to the war in Ukraine. They have adopted a neutral stance and are waiting to see who the winner is. They have correctly understood that America’s competitors such as China, Russia, and Iran will change the future world order. The future world order will no longer be unipolar, rather groupings will determine the outcome.
Therefore, the Arab countries see this and know that Iran’s role is increasing and they do not want to miss out on this opportunity. They too wish to become members of regional agreements. They might have wanted to become a member of NATO at one point, but this transition is reversing now. The transfer of power from the West to the East would not have been possible if it weren’t for the decline of the US, its weakening, and the abolition of its hegemony.
Question: What effects has the decline of America had on the international economy and specifically on the dollar?
M. Khoshcheshm: Iran, Russia, and China have their own reasons for not using the dollar much. India, Saudi Arabia, and a series of other countries that were considered friends of America also correctly understood that the dollar is losing its value because America's economy is weakened and in decline.
The former US ambassador to England said in a debate that China will become the first economic power in the world because it has a population many times greater than ours, and there is no escaping it. So, they are admitting it themselves. Many admit that China has already gone far ahead in terms of its trade and economy and should be considered the first economic power in the world. More than 120 countries in the world have China as their first trading partner and this number is increasing every day. It has reached a point where the Chinese are playing a role in one of the main agreements to reduce tension in West Asia between two regional rivals such as Iran and Saudi Arabia. This shows that the US has lost its position even for its partners.
ASEAN countries are saying that they want to weaken the dollar in their exchanges. ASEAN is a very large and influential economic bloc of Southeast Asian countries that always try to distance themselves from political challenges and crises. Now they too are talking about eliminating or weakening the dollar in trade and replacing it with local, bilateral, multilateral, and other international currencies instead.
We are in fact in a period of transition to a new world order. It will be an era filled with turmoil and chaos. But all the countries have realized this and it is no wonder that they are trying to either remove the dollar from their exchange cycle or they want to make it weaker and give it less weight. All these are the result of America's decline. The US is not what it once used to be. This is really important. It has been severely weakened from the inside and we are witnessing it facing more challenges every day.
Sayyid Mostafa Khoshcheshm is a Tehran-based, senior political analyst and academic whose views have been published in numerous journals. He has attended many TV programs and has taught at a number of Iranian universities and academic centers, including the International Relations Faculty of the Iranian Foreign Ministry.
(The views expressed in this interview are interviewee’s own and do not necessarily reflect those of Khamenei.ir.)
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